India Suspends Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan Following Pahalgam Attack: Escalation and Implications in a dramatic escalation

On April 23, 2025, India decided to stop following the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan. India made this decision because it accused Pakistan of being part of a serious terrorist attack in the Pahalgam area of Jammu and Kashmir, which is under Indian control. By taking this action, along with tough diplomatic moves, India increased the tension in the already difficult relationship with Pakistan. This situation has caused more worry about keeping peace and stability in the region, especially since both countries have nuclear weapons.

The Trigger: Pahalgam Attack and India’s Retaliation

The attack took place on April 22 in Pahalgam, a picturesque tourist destination in Kashmir. Gunmen suddenly started shooting at the visitors, which resulted in the deaths of 26 men and injuries to 17 other people. It seemed like the attackers were aiming only at the men, as women were not harmed. After the attack, they quickly disappeared into the nearby forests. A not well-known group, The Resistance Front, said they were behind the attack. But Indian authorities quickly pointed fingers at Pakistan, accusing them of organizing it, while Pakistan strongly denied these accusations.

India’s Cabinet Committee on Security, which is led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, held an urgent meeting. In this meeting, they discussed and announced plans to take action in response to the situation.

1. Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty: India has decided to pause the water-sharing agreement from 1960. This decision will remain in effect until Pakistan fully and permanently gives up any support for cross-border terrorism.
2. Border Closure: The Attari-Wagah crossing a symbolic border post was shut indefinitely.
3. Diplomatic Downgrade: Pakistan’s defense personnel in New Delhi were expelled, and both nations agreed to reduce embassy staff to 30 members.
4. Travel Restrictions: Saarc visas for Pakistanis were canceled, with a 48-hour exit mandate.

The Indus Waters Treaty: A Pillar of Stability Under Threat

The IWT, brokered by the World Bank, allocates control of six Indus River system rivers between India and Pakistan. Under the treaty:

• Pakistan receives 80% of the water from the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers.
• India controls the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej).

The treaty has endured three wars and many years of difficult relations. India’s decision to pause it is the first official violation. Experts emphasize Article XII(4) of the IWT, which states that the treaty has to remain active unless both parties agree to a new one.

Pakistan’s Response:

• Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif organized an important gathering of the National Security Committee, known as the NSC. The main goal of this meeting was to come up with a strategy or plan in response to a pressing situation.
• Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar criticized India’s actions, calling them a rushed and thoughtless move influenced by politics. He believes India acted without careful consideration, driven mainly by political motives.
• Defense Minister Khawaja Asif made it clear that Pakistan is strongly dedicated to the treaty. He explained that, in the past, India has tried to weaken the treaty’s effectiveness.

Geopolitical Repercussions and International Reactions

The suspension of the IWT carries profound implications:

• Humanitarian Crisis: Over 200 million people in Pakistan depend on the Indus River for farming. Any disruption to this water supply could have a devastating impact on food security in the Punjab and Sindh regions, potentially affecting the livelihoods and well-being of countless families who rely on agriculture for their daily needs. The river is crucial for growing crops, and any issues could lead to shortages in food production, creating significant challenges for local communities and the entire nation.
• Environmental Impact: Specialists warn that using water as a tool in conflicts might worsen climate related issues for both countries involved.
• Diplomatic Fallout: The World Bank is under pressure to step in and help resolve disputes because it is responsible for upholding the treaty. In the past, there have been disagreements, such as the one concerning the Kishanganga Dam back in 2013, which required outside help from international arbitrators to settle the issue. This shows the importance of having a neutral party like the World Bank to mediate and find a peaceful solution.

Global Condemnation and Support:

• U.S. President Donald Trump pledged “full support” to India, echoing Washington’s strategic alignment with New Delhi.
• China condemned the attack but urged restraint, reflecting its delicate balance as a Pakistan ally and regional stakeholder.
• UN Secretary-General António Guterres denounced the violence, while the EU and Gulf nations called for de-escalation.

Historical Context and Domestic Politics

India’s decision fits with its tougher position since Prime Minister Modi removed Jammu and Kashmir’s special status in 2019. The government, led by the BJP, sees making Kashmir fully part of India as crucial for the country’s safety. They often speak strongly against Pakistan to increase national unity and pride.

False Flag Allegations:
The leaders in Pakistan, including Prime Minister Shehbaz, have often accused India of creating fake situations to justify their control over Kashmir. Abdul Basit, who used to be a representative for Pakistan, warned that India might conduct military attacks similar to the ones in Balakot in 2019, where India carried out aerial bombardment in Pakistan. Pakistan remains concerned about these potential threats and continues to speak out against such actions.

Kashmir’s Tourism Paradox:
The attack has damaged India’s attempts to present Kashmir as a calm and safe tourist spot. In 2023, Srinagar organized an important G20 tourism meeting aimed at showing that things are “normal” in the area. However, the outbreak of violence in Pahalgam has led to many tourists leaving quickly. This incident has also made people question how safe India really is.

The Road Ahead: Risks and Diplomacy

1. Legal Battles: Pakistan is considering bringing the issue to the International Court of Justice. They might also take it to the United Nations Security Council, where they are currently serving as a non-permanent member. The reason for this action is to contest India’s recent decision to suspend the treaty that exists between the two countries.
2. Water as a Weapon: Analysts like Michael Kugelman (Wilson Center) note that India’s move could set a dangerous precedent for transboundary water disputes globally.
3. Military Brinkmanship: With both armies on high alert, accidental clashes along the Line of Control (LoC) could spiral into broader conflict.

Conclusion

The attack in Pahalgam and the events after it highlight how sensitive the relationship is between India and Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi’s government wants to demonstrate strength before the elections, while Pakistan is asking for discussions based on solid facts. This situation shows the risks involved with one-sided actions. The halt of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), once praised as a successful cooperation model, marks a risky new phase in politics in South Asia. In this region, matters of water, diplomatic talks, and security are all closely linked.

Former Pakistani Foreign Minister Sherry Rehman issued a warning, saying that excessive aggression should not be mistaken for effective foreign policy. Around the world, there is a sense of anxiety as people closely observe the situation, hoping that leaders will choose sensible actions instead of allowing tensions to escalate further.

References:

• The Indus Waters Treaty: Legal and Political Dimensions (Brookings Institution, 2022).
• Water Insecurity and Conflict in South Asia (International Crisis Group, 2024).
• Statements from India’s Ministry of External Affairs, Pakistan’s Foreign Office, and UN reports.